The PCE Methodological Basis Shift and the Disinflation Illusion: Factor Attribution, Macro Hurdle Rates, and Portfolio De-Risking Under 5.2% Yields
Analyze how the BEA annual NIPA benchmark revision shaves 20 bps off Core PCE through service deflators, creating a dangerous disinflation illusion for multi-factor portfolios. Deconstruct factor attribution, avoid false-pivot duration traps, and align hurdle rates with persistent 5.2% Treasury yields.